Miller Magazine Issue: 153 September 2022

82 INTERVIEW MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2022 Do you think that the agreement will allow Ukrainian grain exports to return to prewar levels 4-5 mmt per month? We hope that the opening of Ukrainian ports for grain export will increase export to about 3-3,5 mmt of grains and oilseeds per month. It’s below the natural pre-war volume of 6-7 mmt export a month. If we could export either from Mykolayiv port, the largest exporting point during the prewar period, it would add volumes to export. Could you give us information about the latest situation in the Ukrainian Black Sea ports? Has port infrastructure been damaged during the war? As you may know, Russian invading forces attacked port facili- ties multiple times. There were major damages at Mykolayiv port grain facilities. Russians also tried unsuccessfully to damage fa- cilities in Odesa port. From the beginning of the grain deal, there were no attempts by Russians to destroy export facilities in Big Odesa ports (Pivdenny, Odesa and Chornomorsk). These ports continue to work accepting and departing vessels with grains and oilseeds. ‘THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE TO BLACK SEA PORTS’ Given the fragile nature of the agreement due to the ongo- ing war, does Ukraine plan to create alternative export routes for its grain? Well, Ukraine tried to export grain through the western bor- der of Ukraine by railway and trucks. The experience proved its insolvency as logistics takes too much costs and producers could not survive as they receive prices below their costs. For example, when the price for wheat was $300 per ton it took almost $200 to get the wheat to port Constanta through al- ternative routes from Ukraine. It left the farmer with less than $100 of wheat price while costs reaching $200 per ton. We could definitely see that the farmer would go bankrupt and could not conduct a sowing campaign. It will emerge further as one more huge risk for the food security in Ukraine as well as for the world. So, there is no alternative to Black Sea ports in Ukraine as a route for Ukrainian grain. The best way to ensure the steady export of Ukrainian grain for the world market and to sustain global food security is to help Ukraine defeat the Russians on the battlefield. Could you give some information about the grain harvest season in Ukraine? What is your forecast for wheat, corn, bar- ley and sunflower production? Ukrainian Grain Association’s latest forecast for grain and oilseeds production this year is 64.5 mmt, which includes 19 mmt of wheat, 24 mmt of corn, 5,4 mmt of barley and 9 mmt of sunflower seeds. What is the latest status on the grain storage projects? Will Ukraine be able to safely store its newly harvested grain? If exports volume reaches 4-5 mmt per month, then the prob- lem will not arise at all. Potentially, we expect possible difficulties with the storage of corn, which will have been harvesting in Sep- tember-October. There are no storage problems at the moment with early grain to store. PROSPECTS FOR GRAIN PRODUCTION IN UKRAINE How the war has affected Ukrainian grain production? Do you think Ukraine farmers will have incentives to plant in the fall and next spring? This year’s harvested area is almost 6 million hectares less than the previous season due to the Russian war against Ukraine and occupation. In general, in the spring of 2022, 2.7 million hect- ares less area was planted under the main spring crops. We can already see the volume of destruction- the impossibil- ity of carrying out a sowing campaign in the occupied territories, the disruption of logistics routes, the blocking of Ukrainian ports. All of this endangers grain production in Ukraine for future peri- ods and even greater risks of famine in the world. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine with the aim of destroying Ukraine, the institutional organization of the Ukrainian state, its culture and its economy, and committing mass crimes of genocide against Ukrainians. It has chosen the agri-sector as one of the targets for attack and destruction as this industry is ensuring Ukraine's food security and stability. The agricultural sector is one of the basic foundations of the Ukrainian economy and provides 20% of the country's GDP and up to 50% of Ukraine's exports. Damages to the agricultural sector of Ukraine from Russia's war against Ukraine, according to FAO estimates, reach 4-6 bil- lion US dollars. Another estimate says the total losses from the war in the agri-sector of Ukraine reached 4.3 billion US dollars ac- cording to the results of the "Survey of War Damage in Ukraine's Agriculture", prepared by the Center for Food and Land Use Re- search KSE Institute together with the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. At the same time, the Ukrainian Kyiv School of Economics estimates indirect losses of the agricultural sector in the amount of 23.3 billion US dollars. The Ukrainian Grain Association, with the support of FAO and the EBRD, initiated the study by surveying Ukrainian agricultural producers, logistics, infrastructure companies, which are import- ant elements of production, storage and transportation of agricul- tural products regarding their damages and losses from the war. The results revealed that agri-sector businesses suffered such losses as sawn areas and land resources, means of production, products, storages etc. We could definitely conclude that the Kremlin from the very beginning of the war aimed to deprive the Ukrainian farmers of the means of production before sowing and to create conditions for an acute food crisis in the fall and further.