Miller Magazine Issue: 153 September 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 98 MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2022 The Chinese Ministry of Water Resources has claimed 22,000 square kilometers of arable land and 350,000 live- stock, but the ultimate impact is likely to be much larger. In the meantime, the government is urging farmers to replant or change crops where they can, harvest and store rice, and take action to boost grain growth in the coming weeks, recommending a switch to late fall crops. The condition of crops in the US deteriorated as expect- ed, the rating gd / ex fell by 1 point to 55%. Rainy weather is likely to continue across much of the Corn Belt for a few more days. An 8-14 day forecast predicts a return to sea- sonally dry conditions for the northern third of the country between Sept. 2 and 8, with warmer-than-usual conditions extending to the plains, western Corn Belt, and upper Mid- west. Argentina 2021/22 corn harvest completes cumulative corn production at 52MMT according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, higher than the USDA forecast. Dry weath- er supported Brazil's second corn harvest, which reached a 94.2% completion rate last week in central-south Bra- zil, Agrural said. That said, 5.1% of the estimated 2022/23 corn area was planted as of Thursday, compared to 1.8% the previous week and slightly below the 5.3% recorded at the same time the previous year. Conab is forecasting a total of 125.51MMT in Brazil's corn crop next season. Anec estimates that corn exports from the country will exceed 7.5 MMT in August. This is 7.3% lower than the association's previous forecast made a week ago. According to market participants, ~ 43MMT of corn harvest 21/22 is left in the sale. The European Commission cut its monthly European Union corn production forecast by 10% on Thursday to 59.3MMT. If realized, it will be the smallest corn crop in the European Union in seven years. Some of the shortfalls in corn could be made up for with feed wheat, and some of the demand would be lower due to lower consumption by livestock farmers. US corn weekly export checks are down 16% from the week to 689kMT for the week ended Aug. 25. The weekly inspection figure was within the lower range of analysts' ex- pectations, which was set between 650,000 and 850,000 tons ahead of the report. The total volume of weekly in- spections in the marketing year since the beginning of the current year is 54.59 MMT, which is 17% less than 66.05 MMT in the previous marketing year. The euro's sharp rise against the dollar put pressure on Euronext before the euro eased gains in volatile trading marked by comments from the head of the US Federal Reserve. Dealers said that technical adjustments related to the upcoming expiration of September futures, as well as demand from consumers who took advantage of the