Miller Magazine Issue: 153 September 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 99 MILLER / SEPTEMBER 2022 earlier fall, helped Euronext strengthen. European weather forecasts showing more rain this coming week have also eased concerns about upcoming plantings. In the US, 95% of winter wheat was harvested by August 21, down 2%, most- ly in PNW states. Spring wheat continued to lag this week, with harvest 33% complete, 21% below normal. U.S. weekly wheat ex- port checks are down 12% to 520,791 tons in the week ended Aug. 25. This figure was below the range of ana- lysts' expectations, which was set between 450,000 and 650,000 tons prior to the report. Agriculture and Food Canada (AAFC) said this week that yields were higher than expected, prompting it to revise its August forecasts upwards. In the 2022/23 season, total wheat production was increased by 0.8 MMT to 34.5 MMT (21.7 MMT in the previous year), while exports increased by 0.6 MMT to 23.0 MMT (15.0 MMT). Statistics Canada es- timates Canadian wheat production at 34.MMT, up 55.1% from last year and 600,000 tons more than traders expect- ed. The increase in expected total wheat production is mainly due to spring wheat. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina re- ported that 79.9% of the wheat crop is in "normal to good condition". Harvesting will start in November on 6.1 million hectares, down from the 6.7 million hectares planted last season. Brazilian milling associa- tion Abitrigo estimates that the country's wheat produc- tion could reach 10MMT, well above government estimates of 9MMT. Brazil is currently a net importer of wheat, but growing acreage and potential yields will make it self-sus- taining within five years. The German wheat harvest was better than expected, with the winter wheat har- vest estimated to be up 4.6% from 2021 to just over 22 MMT, the agriculture ministry said. FranceAgriM- er said French soft wheat protein levels