Miller Magazine Issue: 154 October 2022

30 MILLER / OCTOBER 2022 NEWS The world is heading toward the tightest grain inventories in years despite the resumption of exports from Ukraine, as the shipments are too few and harvests from other major crop producers are smaller than initially expected. Poor weather in key agricultural regions from the Unit- ed States to France and China is shrinking grain harvests and cutting inventories, heightening the risk of famine in some of the world’s poorest nations. By the end of the 2022/23 crop year, the world’s buf- fer stocks of corn will be enough for just 80 days’ worth of consumption, down 28% from five years ago and the lowest level since 2010/11, according to figures compiled for Reuters by the International Grains Council, an inter- governmental organization. That would be fewer days of corn stocks than the world had in 2012, when the last global food crisis spurred riots. The World Bank has earmarked $30 billion to help offset food shortages worsened by war, and U.S. Presi- dent Joe Biden announced nearly $3 billion in additional funding to combat global food insecurity. Tight grain supplies reflect the impact of climate change on crop production as well as growing global demand for livestock that feed on corn, eating away at stockpiles. Inventories of all harvested grain on hand globally will reach an eight-year low at the end of this crop year, the International Grains Council said. More poor weather could further reduce global inventories, particularly if the current dry weather in South America continues into the main planting season, as the crop cy- cle shifts to the southern hemisphere. Crop forecasts in Argentina, the world’s No. 3 corn exporter, are already being scaled back due to dry weather. EU corn production is expected to hit a 15-year low, a decline that will push the bloc to increase 2022/23 im- ports from Ukraine by about 30% from the previous year to 10.4 million tonnes, consultancy Strategie Grains said. Bigger European import demand means less for places like the drought-stricken Horn of Africa. Ukraine’s exports of corn and wheat have risen since a U.N.-brokered deal with Russia allowed shipments to restart from ports that had been blockaded since the war started. But it remains to be seen how much Ukraine can export, especially if the war drags on. “It’s sort of a false hope that Ukraine is going to bridge the current gap in supply and demand,” said Gary Blumenthal, head of Washington-based agricultural consultancy World Perspectives. Ukraine is expected to harvest 25 to 27 million tonnes of corn in 2022, down from 42.1 million Global grain stocks to drop eight-year low