Miller Magazine Issue: 154 October 2022

NEWS 53 MILLER / OCTOBER 2022 sustenance, while increasing the risk of intercommunal and resource-based conflict. Up to 26 million people are expected to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 and above) levels of food insecurity in Somalia, southern and eastern Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Ken- ya. With humanitarian assistance at risk of being cut due to funding shortfalls, the spectre of large-scale deaths from hun- ger looms large in Somalia, with famine likely to take hold in the districts of Baidoa and Burhakaba in Bay region come October. Without an adequate humanitarian response, analysts expect that by December, as many as four children or two adults per 10 000 people will die every day. Hundreds of thousands are already facing starvation today with staggering levels of malnu- trition expected among children under 5. Globally, an all-time high of 970 000 people are expected to face catastrophic hunger (IPC Phase 5) and are starving or projected to starve or at risk of deterioration to catastrophic conditions in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen, if no action is taken – ten times more than six years ago when only two countries had populations in Phase 5. KEY FINDINGS According to the report, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia and Yemen remain at the ‘highest alert’ as hotspots, alone account for almost a million people facing catastrophic levels of hunger (IPC Phase 5 ‘Catastrophe’) with starvation and death a daily reality and where extreme levels of mortality and malnutrition may unfold without immediate action. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Haiti, Kenya, the Sahel, the Sudan and Syria remain ‘of very high concern’ with deteriorating conditions – as in the June edition of the quarterly report – but the alert is extended to the Central African Repub- lic and Pakistan. Meanwhile, Guatemala, Honduras and Malawi have been added to the list of countries, joining Madagascar, Sri Lanka, and Zimbabwe that remain hunger hotspots. Violent conflict remains the primary driver of acute hunger with analysis indicating a continuation of this trend in 2022, with particular concern for Ethiopia, where an intensification of con- flict and interethnic violence in several regions is expected to further escalate, driving up humanitarian needs. Weather extremes such as floods, tropical storms and droughts remain critical drivers in many parts of the globe, and a “new normal” of consecutive and extreme weather events is becoming clear - particularly in the hotspots. Devastating floods have affected 33 million people in Pakistan alone this year and South Sudan faces a fourth consecutive year of extreme flood- ing. Meanwhile, a third consecutive season of below-average rainfall is projected in Syria. Meanwhile, for the first time in 20 years, the La Niña climate event has continued through three consecutive years – affecting agriculture and causing crop and livestock losses in many parts of the world, including Afghani- stan, West and East Africa and Syria. On the economic front, the persistently high global pric- es of food, fuel and fertilizer – continue to drive high domes- tic prices and economic instability. Rising inflation rates have forced governments to enact monetary-tightening measures in advanced economies which have also increased the cost of credit of low-income countries. This is constraining the ability of heavily indebted countries – the number of countries in- creased significantly in recent years - to finance the import of essential items. In the face of these macroeconomic challenges, many governments are compelled to introduce austerity measures affecting incomes and purchasing power – particularly among the most vulnerable families. These trends are expected to in- crease in coming months, the report notes, with poverty and acute food insecurity rising further, as well as risks of civil unrest driven by increasing socio-economic grievances. Humanitarian assistance is crucial to save lives and pre- vent starvation, death and the total collapse of livelihoods – the report notes, highlighting that insecurity, administrative and bureaucratic impediments, movement restrictions and physical barriers severely limit humanitarian responders’ access to peo- ple facing acute hunger in eleven of the hotspot countries, in- cluding all six of the countries where populations are facing or are projected to face starvation (IPC Phase 5), or are at risk of deterioration towards catastrophic conditions. HUMANITARIAN ACTION CRITICAL TO PREVENTING STARVATION AND DEATH The report calls for targeted humanitarian action to save lives and livelihoods in the 19 hunger hotspots, noting that in Afghan- istan, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen, hu- manitarian action will be critical in preventing further starvation and death.