Miller Magazine Issue: 154 October 2022

82 MILLER / OCTOBER 2022 INTERVIEW its agricultural supports, especially as it was this year. Turkey can increase its production by 60% by combining and consolidating agricultural lands, bringing uncultivated lands into agriculture, making productivity investments and integrating technology. So to speak, it is possible to create a value-added economy by achieving full export potential without importing. While 19.8 million tons of wheat production is estimated in Turkey in 2022, this figure is expected to exceed 22 million tons in 2025. The Marmara Region and Thrace lands are crucial for Tur- key’s wheat harvest. In the 2022 wheat harvest, approximately 3.12 million tons of the 19.8 thousand tons of Turkish wheat har- vest was yielded from the Marmara Region. Marmara Region, which is one of the important locations for wheat in terms of cul- tivation area size and yield, and especially Tekirdağ, provides us with a logistical advantage with its proximity to the ports. Following Central Anatolia, the Marmara Region is attracting the attention as the second largest region meeting the wheat harvest in Turkey. There are concerns about a global food crisis due to the effects of climate change, drought and pandemic, and final- ly the war between Russia and Ukraine, two leading grain producers. The International Grain Council says that wheat stocks are at the lowest level of the last 5 years. Due to the war, there is a shortage of supply from the Black Sea. Do you agree with the concerns about a food crisis? Is there such a danger, particularly in Turkey? In fact, the world’s wheat or grain-related food crisis started two or three years ago. With the pandemic, we witnessed a waste of time in agriculture in many areas. In some places, the plantings could not be done. There were no laborers to farm. Therefore, the low market prices of 4-5 years ago also affected the wheat crisis, which came to light along with the pandemic. If you look carefully, global wheat prices were around 200-250 dollars 4-5 years ago. This actually had caused farmers to be unable to do this job anymore, not only in Turkey but all over the world. Last year, to crown it all, a drought broke out. I think this is the biggest problem. You know, the farmer is planting in the amount of soil for each year. The seeds, pesticides and fertilizers used per decare are the same. The tractor, diesel and labor he uses for this are the same. Yield per decare is crucial for the farmer. If the yield is good that year, you survive; if it is bad, you don’t. Last year, due to climatic conditions and drought, the yield hit rock bottom. One of the most important reasons that led to the global de- crease in wheat stocks last season was the use of quality wheat as animal feed in some parts of the world, including Turkey, due to the shortage of corn and barley. This was the second major factor causing distress in the world. The third major factor causing problem worldwide, and I think one of the most important, is the aggressive stocking. Countries have tried to increase their stocks at any cost due to the pandemic, war, drought and geopolitical crises. There was such a crazy stock of wheat that we do not even know the amount of stocks of some countries. This is really important. In other words, when the harvest period comes, generally ev- eryone leaves the stock and enters the new harvest. Because everyone knows that the new harvest will yield more afford- able products. However, this wasn’t the case this year. It’s about the supply-demand balance in the world. When yields are low, when supply is constrained, prices rise immediately. High pric- es cause farmers to enlarge their planting areas. Long story short, there is a risk of a food crisis, but I don’t think there will be a famine. Harvesting takes place at different times in two hemispheres. In addition, due to the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia could not enter the market that much. It has big grain stocks. Russia’s yield this year is also very good. Thus, there is risk in the near future, but I do not expect a famine. How long do you anticipate this panic situation, especially due to the stockpiling of some countries in the world, will last? If you pay close attention, this state of panic has seriously decreased. With the pandemic, wheat prices increased to 450- 480 dollars/ton in the world markets. Towards the end of the pandemic, at the beginning of 2022, these figures were around 300-320 dollars in the world wheat markets. However, with the Russia-Ukraine war that broke out later, it rose again to 450- 460 dollars. With the grain corridor deal and the new harvest, it started to come back to the $300-350 band today. I think it is going to stay around this level. I don’t think it is coming any