Miller Magazine Issue: 154 October 2022

number of foreign tourists will increase rice consumption by 4 percent from the last season. In addition, the easing of COVID-19 restrictions encouraged restaurants and hotels to reopen their in-restaurant services. The government also encouraged feed mills to blend in broken rice and residuals with feed corn and other imported feed ingredient to relieve high feed costs and tight import supplies. CORN PRODUCTION Corn is one of five major crops grown in the uplands of Thai- land, along with rice, cassava, sugar cane, and rubber trees. However, Thailand’s domestic corn supply is currently not suf- ficient to meet the needs of its in-country demands, and small quantities have to be imported. Rapid economic growth and ac- celerated urbanization are expected to create an even higher demand for corn in Thailand. USDA revised its previous forecast for 2022/23 corn pro- duction down to 5.2 million tons in anticipation of reduced off-season corn acreage. Expected abundant water supplies and favorable weather conditions could persuade farmers to switch to crops with lower maintenance costs and higher re- turns, such as off-season rice and cassava. In addition, farmers are likely to apply less chemical fertilizer due to current high prices, which could lower crop yield in the 2022/23 season from the previous year. Corn imports totaled 1.5 million tons in the 2021/22 season, down 21 percent from 2020/21 due to shrinking feed demand and tight global suppliers. Around 99 percent of the imported corn came from Burma as ASEAN countries benefit from du- ty-free with unlimited quota between February 1 and August 31 under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. USDA revised corn imports for the 2022/23 season up to 1.6 million tons, up 5 percent from the 2021/22 season in line with growing livestock production. A gradual recovery in domestic consumption and growing export demand drove the increase in poultry production, which accounts for roughly 43 percent total feed demand. WHEAT IMPORTS In 2020, Thailand imported $678M in wheat, becoming the 22nd largest importer of wheat in the world. It imports wheat pri- marily from the United States, Ukraine, Argentina, Australia and Canada. USDA forecasts 2022/23 wheat imports higher to 2.9 million tons, up 23 percent from 2021/22 due to growing live- stock production, especially for poultry production. Traders are expecting strong demand for poultry and poul- try-based products in the second half of 2022. In July 2022, Chinese authorities allowed Thai poultry factories that have complied and operated in accordance with Chinese regulations aimed at preventing contamination of COVID-19 in livestock products. As a result, there are currently 20 factories processing frozen poultry meat and poultry-based products in Thailand with licenses to export to China. Wheat imports in the 2021/22 season totaled 2.3 million tons, down 29 percent from 2020/21 due to a reduction in milling wheat and feed wheat demand. Milling wheat imports totaled 1.35 million tons, down 7 percent from the same period last year, while feed wheat imports totaled 730 thousand metric tons, down 54 percent. Imports of Indian wheat significantly rose to 140 thousand metric tons of which 120 thousand metric tons were feed wheat imports. Romanian feed wheat also showed an increase in im- ports totaling 130 thousand metric tons, up 76 percent from the same period last year. In the meantime, Australian wheat imports declined to 760 thousand metric tons, down 81 percent from the same period last year. Australian feed wheat was the top source for Thai feed wheat imports, while the main sources of milling wheat in 2021/22 were the United States and Australia with 43 and 41 percent market share, respectively. Feed mills reportedly used more locally produced corn and soybean meal and du- ty-free imported corn in their poultry and swine feed rations due to high import prices of feed wheat. Wheat flour imports totaled 270 thousand metric tons, up 2 percent from the same period last year in line with a gradual recovery in domestic demand. The Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) reported that instant noodle production in the 2021/22 season increased 4 percent from the same period last year. Domestic and export demand for instant noodle production increased by 4 percent and 2 percent, respectively. Despite the increase in production costs of instant noodles, the government froze the retail price of instant noodles at 6 baht per package ($0.17). Five manufacturers of instant noo- dles requested that the Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce raise the retail price to 8 baht per package ($0.23) due to higher production costs and inflation. The industry claims that it will be the first price increase in more than 14 years. Bakery production shrunk to 3 percent due to a slow recovery in domes- tic and export demand. Instant noodle and bakery production ac- count for around 35 and 25 percent, respectively, of total milling wheat consumption. Livestock feed production, mainly the poul- try sector, shows a promising recovery in the first half of 2022, despite higher domestic feed ingredients and fuel prices, which account more than 30- 40 percent of the cost of production. 91 MILLER / OCTOBER 2022 COUNTRY PROFILE