Miller Magazine Issue: 154 October 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS 95 MILLER / OCTOBER 2022 Meantime, recent rains in southern Ukrainian regions have improved conditions for continuing winter grain sowing, the state weather forecasting center said. It said in a report that soil moisture in mid-September is among the most significant in Ukraine over the past 10 years. As for the Canadian Saskatchewan harvest, as seen on Sep- tember 19, many producers experienced cool, damp weather this past week which halted or slowed their harvest operations until conditions improved. Other producers that were able to continue either finished their harvest or are very close to doing so. Precipitation was generally welcomed after several weeks of dry weather. Concerns about field and equipment fires have eased and there is hope that the rain will be enough in some areas to allow pastures a little regrowth. Steady rainfall across Manitoba late last week stalled harvest progress. Farmers are anxiously awaiting drier weather to return to straight-cutting ce- real and canola crops, and for breezy days to dry down damp swaths. Seeding fall rye and winter wheat has started, primarily on canola stubble. Seedbed conditions are good, and recent rains will rapidly germinate planted crops. Brazilian wheat production should total 10.935 MMT in 2022 as four states are likely to increase output in what will be a re- cord season for local farmers, according to agribusiness con- sultancy Safras & Mercado. The new estimate represents an increase from the 10.5 MMT previously expected. If projections are confirmed, Brazil’s wheat production this year will be 41.2% higher than the 7.745 MMT in 2021, which was already a record, Safras said. Thanks to the development of new wheat varieties, Brazilian farmers are able to cultivate wheat plants adapted to tropical conditions. BCR forecast the 2022/2023 wheat harvest at 16.5 MMT, down from 17.7 MMT before. World Grain reported that wheat rated “regular-to-bad” went from 18% to 34% last month, a mar- ket analyst updated the rating to 42% poor to very poor on 27th September. Worrying economic indicators in Europe have in fact plunged the European currency. In the Eurozone, inflation was a record 9.1% in August due to higher energy and food prices. The European Union’s statistics agency reported that bread prices in August 2022 were 18% higher than a year ago, the highest rise since December 2017. Eurostat said prices rose the most in Hungary, which reported a 66% increase in price, and Lithuania recorded a 33% increase. The combined cost of bread and cereals rose 16.6%, the highest rate since January 1997. Meantime, non-commercial market participants expand- ed their net long position in Euronext’s milling wheat futures and options in the week to Sept. 16, data published by Eu- ronext showed. Chicago-based agricultural brokerage Allendale has pub- lished its own estimates for US 22/23 wheat production and pegged them at 1.787 billion bushels (48.63 million mt), which is up marginally from the 1.783 billion bushels (48.52 million mt) projected in the USDA’s. And we see strong demand from SA,