Miller Magazine Issue: 155 November 2022

102 MILLER / NOVEMBER 2022 MARKET ANALYSIS year. Barge traffic in the US resumed along the Mississippi River, a key artery for grain exports through the Gulf, although lagged behind their pace from a year ago, according to US- DA’s weekly Grain Transportation Report. Export elevations were also firm, as wheat competes with corn and especial- ly soybeans for available elevator space. Sluggish railroad performance, the consistently high value of the U.S. dollar, persistent dry weather in US wheat growing areas, and un- certainty over the Black Sea grain deal are all combining to keep grain prices high. Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index posted a sec- ond straight weekly fall past week, weighed down by weaker demand for capesize vessels, which slipped to their lowest in nearly three weeks. BDI extended losses for the fourth straight session on Monday falling 1.2% to a three-week low of 1,797 points, amid weaker demand across all its vessel segments. The Ministry of Transport of Russia has prepared amendments to the “Code of Merchant Shipping (KTM)”, pro- posing to give the government the right to determine the list of goods of Russian cargo owners for transpor- tation by domestic ships and set the cost of freight for their transportation. Logistics is the first key to the mar- ket’s secret. Multinational chemical company and fertilizer manufacturer Yara cut its European ammonia output to just 57pc of capac- ity in the third quarter as it struggled with swings in natural gas prices. Ukrainian nitrogen fertilizers producer RivneAzot was shot down after Russian missile attacks. Shortage or high cost of fertilizers across the globe is the second key to the grain market’s secret. The third key is weather conditions. US corn prices eased slightly early in the session partly based on seasonal harvest pressure. The International Grains Council reduced estimat- ed global corn output by 2 MMT to 1.166 billion in their lat- est update, versus year-ago totals of 1.217 billion metric tons. That came via cuts to the EU and U.S., only offset in part by an