Miller Magazine Issue: 155 November 2022

MARKET ANALYSIS increase for China. Particularly, EU corn output is now seen down at 53.5 million tonnes versus 56.2 million previously, and the United States is now seen producing 353 million tonnes versus 354.2 million. Chinese grain (wheat, corn, bar- ley, sorghum) imports Jun-Sep are 14.2 mln tonnes, vs 23.8 mln last year. BdeC cut its projection for Argentine fields planted with corn to 7.3 million hectares from 7.5 million hectares esti- mated the prior week, down about 3% and blamed on the months-long drought. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn farmers have to date planted 17% of their corn-designated fields for the 2022/2023 season, or down more than 9 percentage points compared to the same time during the previous cycle. The slow pace of corn planting is due to the lack of optimal soil humidity, the BdeC report noted, which is also seen hit- ting yields since early-planted corn tends to be more produc- tive. The Rosario exchange, however, maintained its projec- tions for the 2022/23 corn harvest at 56 million tonnes and its 2022/23 soybean harvest at 48 million tonnes. AgRural reported the Brazilian 1st crop corn was 46% plant- ed as of 10/14. That was up 7% points through the week and is 1% point ahead of last year’s pace. Brazil’s Anec expected the country’s corn exports to reach 7.18 MMT in October, which is moderately above its prior forecast from a week earlier. The Stratégie Grains said EU corn production will fall to 50Mt this year. That is a “calamitously low” level, exactly 2.5Mt lower than its previous estimate and 28pc lower than last year. Grain maize harvesting in France has been nearly finished, with 92% of the area cut by past Monday, FranceA- griMer said. That compared with 83% the prior week and just 30% a year ago. Still, European users have already imported massive amounts from Ukraine and Brazil to off- set the anticipated shortfall, so allowing the market “some breathing space”. High volatility on geopolitics and planting campaign still run the wheat market. TMO and SAGO booked more than 1MMT, OAIC and Pakistan on the way. Topsoil moisture on Canadian cropland is rated 22pc adequate, 35pc short and 43pc very short. “Even the re- gions that started the year with a surplus of moisture are now becoming very dry”. As of 18 October, 82% of the US was experiencing abnormal dryness/ drought, according to the US Drought Monitor, including an estimated 70% of winter wheat areas. Russia planted 83% of planned winter areas, and Ukraine strongly decreased in areas (from 6,5 mln ha+ to not more than 3,9 mln expected for winter wheat, from which 79% are planted). Russia is considering an export quota on all grains, said Dmitriy Patrushev, the nation’s agriculture minister. Patrushev said the export quota is 25.5 MMT of grain and would begin February 15 and end June 30. However, the minister did not indicate how much wheat was included in the quota. Also, the quota still needs government approval, but not seem re- strictive. Planting conditions in France remain very favorable for winter crops, with, however, temperatures still abnormally high for the season, leading to fears of sensitivity to come next spring in the event of frost. According to the farm office FranceAgriMer, indeed, French farmers had sown 46% of the expected soft wheat area for next year’s harvest by Oct. 17, compared with 21% a week earlier and ahead of year-ago progress of 36%. Farmers also advanced swiftly in winter bar- ley sowing last week, with 67% of the expected area drilled by Monday against 37% a week earlier, FranceAgriMer’s ce- real crop progress report showed. Winter barley sowing was also ahead of the pace last year when 54% of the area had been drilled by the same week. In this context, Stratégie Grains raised the 2022-23 EU wheat crop forecast by 1.4Mt to 125.5Mt. However, it is still down 3pc from the previous year. French Wheat Export to the Third Country: Loaded+Line up 1-24 October: 1.4 mt. To- tal export this season so far 5.1 mt (Crop 22 export potential increased to 9.9 mt, which means 52 % done so far). Regular MILLER / NOVEMBER 2022 103