Miller Magazine Issue: 156 December 2022

38 MILLER / DECEMBER 2022 NEWS “The Pakistan rice crop was affected this year by devastating floods, with production forecast to fall 27 percent from 2021/22 to the lowest level since 2012/13. With tighter supplies, 2022/23 exports are forecast to return to more normal levels at 4 million tons,” the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its latest grain market report released on 9th November. While Pakistan rice exports surged during the 2021/22 marketing year (Nov/Oct), exports were cut in November and are now forecast to decline 17 percent in 2022/23. Rice is produced primarily in Punjab and Sindh provinces and the crop was in the growing season when the floods hit the Sindh province. Rice is much less of a staple in the Pakistani diet com- pared to wheat. With tighter rice supplies and higher prices, consumption is expected to decline slightly but still result in fewer exportable rice supplies. “Throughout 2021/22, exports expanded considerably, up 26 percent to 4.4 million tons during the first 11 months of the marketing year,” the report said. “Exports were up to key buy- ers including Afghanistan and Kenya, but have also expanded considerably to smaller markets like Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates. The most notable growth in Pakistan exports in 2021/22 has been to China, where broken rice exports have more than doubled on strong demand for use in feed.” With tighter supplies, 2022/23 exports are forecast to return to more normal levels at 4 million tons. “As the fourth largest exporter, reduced exports from Pakistan may ben- efit India, its top competitor. Both countries export basmati rice, regular milled long grain rice, parboiled rice, and bro- ken rice. However, with India banning broken rice exports, Pakistan may still have opportunities to ship to China,” USDA noted. Flood-hit Pakistan’s rice exports projected to decline by 17 percent MARKET FEATURES Pakistan Rice Exports to Contract Amid Flood-Affected Production The Pakistan rice crop was affected this year by devastating floods, with production forecast to fall 27 percent from 2021/22 to the lowest level since 2012/13. This in turn is expected to constrain Pakistan’s exportable supplies. While Pakistan rice exports surged during the 2021/22 marketing year (Nov/Oct), exports were cut this month and are now forecast to decline 17 percent in 2022/23. Rice is produced primarily in Punjab and Sindh provinces and the crop was in the growing season when 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 MMT Pakistan Rice Production and Exports Production Exports