Miller Magazine Issue: 156 December 2022

40 MILLER / DECEMBER 2022 NEWS Issued twice a year, Food Outlook offers reviews of mar- ket supply and utilization trends for the world’s major food- stufs, including cereals, oil crops, sugar, meat, dairy and fish. It also looks at trends in ocean freight rates. Supplies of most of these major commodities are at or close to re- cord levels, but multiple factors point to tighter markets ahead. At 775 million tonnes, total wheat utilization is seen expanding marginally in 2022/23, by 0.3 percent, from 2021/22, mostly driven by higher food consumption of wheat, which is forecast to continue rising in line with popu- lation growth, as well as a greater industrial use. By contrast, high wheat prices relative to feed grains, maize in particular, will likely reduce feed use of wheat in 2022/23, largely in China and, to a lesser extent, the United States of America, where supplies are tight. GLOBAL WHEAT STOCK EXPECTED TO RISE Based on the latest global production and utilization fore- casts, global wheat inventories are expected to rise above opening levels by 2 percent in 2022/23 to 300 million tonnes, the highest level on record. However, most of the projected accumulation of wheat stocks is expected to oc- cur in China and the Russia. Excluding these two countries, wheat inventories in the rest of the world are predicted to fall by more than 8 percent below their opening levels, led by drawdowns expected in India, the European Union and the United States of America, as well as several countries in Africa and Asia. GLOBAL WHEAT TRADE World wheat trade in 2022/23 (July/June) is forecast to contract by 1 percent from the 2021/22 record level, down to 194 million tonnes, mostly reflecting export disruptions and expectations of lower import demand in some coun- tries due to bigger domestic harvests. Despite greater re- cent shipments due to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, wheat exports from Ukraine in 2022/23 are forecast to be well below average and last season’s level because of a slower pace of exports and ongoing logistical challenges. Export restrictions to protect domestic supplies are expected to reduce wheat sales from India, while reduced production will likely curb Argentina’s exports. On the import side, an- ticipated smaller purchases by China, the Islamic Repub- lic of Iran and Kazakhstan, on account of bigger national harvests, are seen to be reducing wheat import demand. COARSE GRAINS Coarse grain inventories are forecast to fall to their lowest levels since 2013 due to inventory drawdowns in major coun- tries as a result of anticipated declines in production. Global coarse grain production is forecast to fall by 2.8 percent in 2022, to 1 467million tonnes. While it will likely drop in 2022/23, world rice output is envisaged to remain at an overall average level, buoyed by resilient planting levels in Asia and recover- ing output in Africa. Global oilseed production is forecast to rebound and reach an all-time high in the 2022/23 marketing year, with increased outputs of soybean and rapeseed ex- pected to offset a likely drop in sunflower seed production. In its new Food Outlook report, FAO’s forecast for world wheat production in 2022/23 stands at a record 784 million tonnes, up 0.6 percent from last season. Significant harvest recoveries in Canada and the Russian Federation are expected to make up the bulk of the year-on-year increase and offset production declines foreseen in several countries, including Argentina, Australia, the European Union, India, Morocco and, especially, Ukraine. FAO forecasts record wheat production