Miller Magazine Issue: 156 December 2022

COVER STORY 67 MILLER / DECEMBER 2022 from Iraq and potentially reduced market presence of the EU. Nonetheless, the Council’s projection for Turkey is scaled back in recent months on a generally sluggish pace of shipments to date. Turkey’s July-September dispatches of around 1.1m t, most- ly destined for Near East Asia, notably Iraq, Syria and Yemen, were 8% lower y/y, primarily because of smaller deliveries to sub-Saharan Africa. Because of tighter supplies, flour exports by Argentina could be the lowest since 2013/14, at around 0.5m t, with further down- grades possible depending on the ultimate size of the 2022/23 harvest, which has been severely impacted by drought condi- tions and frosts. In contrast, the full-year export forecast for Rus- sia, currently placed at 0.4m t, holds a significant upside poten- tial. While the official export statistics for the country has been suspended, the recent estimates point to a sharp y/y increase in wheat flour shipments since the start of the calendar year. Amid a smaller domestic outturn, coupled with high input and energy costs for processing, shipments by the EU are seen modestly lower y/y, at 0.6m t. Following a drop in domestic production and government restrictions on wheat exports in August 2022 amid rising domestic prices, shipments by India are seen retreating to a close-to-average level of 0.5m t (1.1m previous year). However, with the more recent moves to allow exports of flour processed from imported grain in the Special Economic Zone, shipments in the months ahead may exceed current expectations. * The numbers in the article are based on IGC Grain Market Report 537, 17 November 2022. EXPORTS 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 (est.) (f’cast) Argentina 882 804 741 500 Canada 236 240 246 310 EU* 626 603 608 550 Kazakhstan 2.156 2.336 2.310 2.400 Russia 438 285 433 430 Ukraine 469 178 100 130 USA 376 346 307 310 China 416 107 170 200 Egypt a) 727 615 702 490 India 308 425 1.106 500 Iran a) 400 250 50 50 Japan a) 234 241 239 230 Pakistan 200 130 200 200 Sri Lanka a) 114 96 119 50 Turkey a) 4.606 4.534 4.417 4.940 UAE a) 100 70 50 50 Others 2.417 2.539 2.302 2.560 WORLD TOTAL 14.706 13.800 14.100 13.900 a) Includes exports of flour (in wheat equivalent) processed from imported wheat IMPORTS 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 (est.) (f’cast) EUROPE 356 620 710 720 EU* 50 239 301 360 Others 306 381 409 360 CIS 1.112 930 1.150 1.030 Tajikistan 165 118 130 120 Uzbekistan 504 507 581 550 Others 443 305 439 360 N & C AMERICA 924 920 880 920 Canada 81 75 81 80 Mexico 292 264 245 250 USA 368 370 394 410 Others 183 210 160 180 SOUTH AMERICA 1.245 1.120 1.150 1.030 Bolivia 480 447 320 300 Brazil 420 355 450 400 Venezuela 267 252 308 260 Others 77 66 72 70 NEAR EAST ASIA 3.565 3.430 3.860 4.020 Iraq 1.857 1.941 2.200 2.600 Israel 134 83 80 100 Syria 407 366 483 300 Yemen 693 658 440 650 Others 473 381 657 370 FAR EAST ASIA 3.667 3.410 2.930 3.320 Afghanistan 1.683 2.243 1.700 1.800 China 331 132 115 150 Hong Kong 263 210 207 250 Indonesia 72 71 75 75 Malaysia 143 153 100 120 Singapore 252 175 179 200 Thailand 232 168 150 170 Others 692 258 404 555 AFRICA 2.527 2.320 2.330 1.850 North Africa 47 40 70 50 Sub-Sahara 2.479 2.280 2.260 1.800 Angola 359 205 230 220 Benin 135 170 120 110 Burkina Faso 149 167 85 100 Eritrea 276 140 170 130 Ghana 78 106 100 100 Madagascar 79 118 90 120 Somalia 311 334 427 230 Sierra Leone 68 84 79 82 Togo 49 48 10 30 Others 975 908 949 678 OCEANIA 141 140 170 140 OTHERS / UNSPECIFIED 1.170 910 920 870 WORLD TOTAL 14.706 13.800 14.100 13.900 Wheat flour