Miller Magazine Issue: 156 December 2022

74 MILLER / DECEMBER 2022 INTERVIEW How is climate change affecting global food security today and what can we expect in the future? We asked William R. Sutton, Global Lead for Climate Smart Agriculture for the World Bank, to explain the potential impacts of a warmer world on the food system. What you need to know about food security and climate change William R. Sutton Global Lead for Climate Smart Agriculture World Bank What is the state of global food security today, and what is the role of climate change? The number of people suffering acute food insecurity in- creased from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million in 82 countries by June 2022, as the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, and the continued economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic pushed food prices to all-time highs. Global food insecurity had already been rising, due in large part to climate phenomena. Global warming is influenc- ing weather patterns, causing heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts. Rising food commodity prices in 2021 were a major factor in pushing approximately 30 million additional people in low-income countries toward food insecurity. At the same time, the way that food is often produced to- day is a big part of the problem. It’s recently been estimated that the global food system is responsible for about a third of greenhouse gas emissions—second only to the energy sector; it is the number one source of methane and biodiversity loss. It’s recently been estimated that the global food system is responsible for about a third of greenhouse gas emissions— second only to the energy sector; it is the number one source of methane and biodiversity loss. Who is most affected by climate impacts on food security? About 80% of the global population most at risk from crop failures and hunger from climate change are in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, where farming families are disproportionally poor and vulnerable. A severe drought caused by an El Nino weather pattern or climate change can push millions more people into poverty. This is true even in places like the Philippines and Vietnam, which have relatively high incomes, but where farmers often live at the edge of pov- erty and food price increases have an outsized impact on poor urban consumers. How might climate change affect farming and food security in the future? Up to a certain point, rising temperatures and CO2 can be beneficial for crops. But rising temperatures also accelerate evapotranspiration from plants and soils, and there must also be enough water for crops to thrive. For areas of the world that are already water-constrained, climate change will increasingly cause adverse impacts on agri- cultural production through diminishing water supplies, increas- es in extreme events like floods and severe storms, heat stress, and increased prevalence of pests and diseases. Above a certain point of warming -- and particularly above an increase of 2 degrees Celsius in average global temperatures – it becomes increasingly more difficult to adapt and increas- ingly more expensive. In countries where temperatures are al-