Miller Magazine Issue: 156 December 2022

79 ARTICLE MILLER / DECEMBER 2022 can be accelerated. This suggests that the rate of port capacity utilization could be raised. Provided the “grain corridor” continues to operate successfully and in case of further gradual liberation of Kherson region, Mykolaiv and Ochakiv could be added to the list of the ports operating under the deal. At the same time, the workload of railway transport re- mains high. While, for example, some 200 grain railcars per day crossed the border in March, this number reached 560-580 during the port blockade in July and then low- ered to roughly 500-520 railcars in September after the rise in sea exports. 3. How will logistics change? The gains in Ukrainian exports thanks to the grain corri- dor were as follows: +1.66 M mt in August +3.93 M mt in September +3.92 M mt in October Unless the Mykolaiv region ports are added to this agree- ment, exports through the grain corridor in the coming months will end up around 4-4.5 M mt. The exact forecasts will strongly depend on the pace of vessel inspections. During Russia’s short-term withdrawal from the deal, the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul accelerated inspec- tions, giving hope for an increase in exports in Novem- ber compared to previous months. But after Russia had resumed its participation in the inspections, the vessel queues resumed as well. So, now the maximum export potential under this scenar- io is 7-8 M mt of agricultural products, which is to satisfy the market and solve the problem of exporting carryovers from the previous marketing year. 4. How will it affect the agricultural sector as a whole? Uninterrupted shipping by sea will allow Ukraine to maintain the gained pace of agricultural exports and, consequently, its farmers will be able to earn money for 2023 spring planting. In addition, agricultural exports generate the inflow of for- eign currency into the country and thereby help stabilize the exchange rate and the overall economic situation.