Miller Magazine Issue 137 May 2021

94 Country Profile MILLER / may 2021 mln ha of spring barley (92% out of 1.39 mln ha plan). WHEAT Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture forecasts wheat crop 2021 to rebound to 29-30 MMT vs. 25.1 MMT last year. Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is more conservative - 27.67 MMT; SovEcon at a record 28.6 MMT; FAS USDA sees Ukrainian wheat crop 2021 at 26.84 MMT vs. 25.5 MMT for 2020 crop in April WASDE report. The share of milling wheat in the 2021 output could be no less than 65%, almost the same as in 2020. Ukrainian AgMin sees wheat export 2021/22 at 21- 22 MMT vs. 17.5 MMT in 2020/21. In the new sea- son, we expect Ukraine to preserve its positions in Indonesia, Egypt, Bangladesh. Pakistan should be left in the top destinations for the second consec- utive year, as it is forecast to have a shortfall of 3 MMT of wheat in 2021/22, which should be covered by about 50%/50% by Russia and Ukraine, plus some part could be EU origin. At the same time, Morocco, Tunisia, Turkey most of all could decrease their im- ports. It is also an important question, whether China could increase its purchases of Ukrainian feed wheat due to switching its animal nutrition formula away from corn. CORN Ukrainian AgMin sees Ukrainian corn crop 2021 at 34 MMT vs. 30.3 MMT LY: UGA at 35.5 MMT vs. 29.92 MMT LY; SovEcon at a record 36.6 MMT; FAS USDA at 33.5 MMT vs. 2020/21 crop in April WASDE at 29.5 MMT. Export 2021/22 is seen by UGA at 30 MMT; FAS USDA at 27.6 MMT. In the new season, China will definitely maintain its position of the main outlet of Ukrainian corn. Herewith, the volume could be smaller than this season, amid expectations of higher crop in China, as well as change in the pigs diet. China’s AgMin issued specific guidelines for reducing the amount Ukraine: wheat export 2020/21 Importer Jun-Mar Indonesia 2,20 Egypt 2,15 Pakistan 1,40 Bangladesh 1,07 Morocco 0,87 Turkey 0,69 Tunisia 0,68 Yemen 0,58 Philippines 0,57 Libya 0,54 Others 3,68 Total 14,43 Source: Customs statistics