Miller Magazine Issue 137 May 2021

98 Country Profile MILLER / may 2021 But how it normally happens in spring, bright crop expectations fell under the cloud of weather influ- ence: lack of rains in the northern U.S. Plains spring wheat belt; dryness and cold spell in the EU; high winterkill in Russia pushed prices to a cosmic high level. As of 30 April 2021, the price of the new crop wheat with 12.5% protein for August delivery reached $267/MT FOB Novorossiysk and $252/ MT FOB Berdyansk. It showed increase by $26-27/ MT com- pared to the prices in the middle of the March 2021 and by $65-70 compared to the prices of the new crop wheat same time last year. Also, it is very import- ant to note, that for the first time since 2015/16 MY, Ukrainian corn prices appeared higher than wheat. Corn market is heavily driven by Chinese demand, as well as adverse weather conditions in the South America. One could only imagine, how prices could be heated in case China starts rebuilding its wheat stocks. In April 2021 report, Strategie Grains men- tioned: "…2021-crop wheat prices have little potential for decline at present". Ukraine: corn export 2020/21 Importer Oct-Mar China 6,00 Egypt 1,58 Netherlands 1,49 Spain 1,45 Iran 0,82 Portugal 0,59 Turkey 0,51 United Kingdom 0,51 Italy 0,48 Israel 0,39 Others 2,00 Total 15,82 Source: Customs statistics Factors to watch: • Development of weather in the US: dryness spurred prices in April, but rains are forecast; • Wheat, corn, barley crop development in the BS; • Dry conditions were observed in April in Europe; • Rally in corn prices; • Chinese feed demand for wheat, Chinese stocks; • Official and unofficial export regulations in the Black Sea and other exporting regions • Corn harvesting results in Argentina and Brazil • Demand from major importers